Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update: What the Fed’s Latest Rate Cut Really Means for Mortgage Rates

Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for October 30, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group

The Fed Made Its Move — But Mortgage Rates Didn’t Follow

This week, the Federal Reserve did exactly what markets expected: it cut the benchmark Fed Funds Rate by a quarter percent. That brings the target range to 3.75%–4.0%, following a similar cut in September.

The reasoning? Inflation remains sticky, but job growth is cooling — a combination that puts the Fed in a tricky position.

But here’s what most people don’t realize:

The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates.

The Fed Funds Rate influences short-term lending between banks. Raleigh home loan rates and mortgage rates on the aggregate, however, live in the bond market, and that market reacts to expectations — not announcements.

So when the Fed made its move this week, the bond market had already priced it in. Then, when Chair Jerome Powell said another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion,” traders hit the brakes… and Raleigh mortgage rates nudged higher.

Why Mortgage Rates Went Up After the Fed Cut

Let’s unpack the “why.”

Mortgage rates are primarily driven by demand for Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) — bonds that investors buy and sell based on their view of inflation and risk.

• When the Fed cuts rates, MBS yields can fall — but only if investors expect further easing.
• Powell’s statement this week hinted at caution, not a clear path to more cuts.
• That caused the bond market to cool off, pushing yields — and therefore mortgage rates — slightly higher.

So yes, the Fed cut. But no, that doesn’t guarantee cheaper home loan rates.

The takeaway? Don’t wait for headlines. Act on strategy.

What This Means for Homeowners in Raleigh

If you’re already a homeowner, this is your signal to schedule a quick Mortgage Review with Kevin Martini or Logan Martini with the Martini Mortgage Group.

Here’s why:

• We’ll identify if you can lower your cost of borrowing right now.
• If not, we’ll determine your “strike rate” — the Raleigh mortgage rate at which refinancing becomes a smart move.
• You’ll know exactly when to act next — no guessing, no FOMO.

At Martini Mortgage Group, we treat your mortgage like a managed asset, not a one-time transaction. That’s what fiduciary-style mortgage guidance means.

What Raleigh Buyers Should Know Right Now

There’s an old proverb:

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”

The same holds true for homeownership.

If you had bought a home 10 years ago in Raleigh, your property value could have increased by nearly 94%.

That’s the power of time in the market — not timing the market.

And looking forward, Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to start with a “5” by 2027.
When that happens, buyer demand will surge — and so will home prices.

That’s why “Marry the house, date the rate” is more relevant than ever.

Because you can always refinance when rates drop…
…but you can’t rewind to buy yesterday’s home prices.

Want proof? Just look at the data released this week.

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values are still climbing — both nationally and right here in Raleigh.

Case-Shiller shows that prices remain higher than a year ago, even as growth moderates. Raleigh continues to outperform many metros with consistent appreciation.

The FHFA data echoes the same story: home prices rose 0.3% month-over-month and are up 4.8% year-over-year nationwide. That means homeowners who bought just one year ago have already built meaningful equity — while those who waited are still watching from the sidelines.

So when you hear people say they’re “waiting for prices to drop,” remember:

• 📈 Prices haven’t dropped — they’ve simply grown at a steadier pace.
• ⏳ Waiting rarely saves money; it usually costs opportunity.
• 🏡 The next rate dip could bring more buyers, more competition, and higher prices.

That’s why the strategy remains the same: Marry the house. Date the rate.
Because rates change — but missed equity doesn’t come back.

TL;DR (Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for October 30, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group)

• The Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, lowering it to a target range of 3.75%–4.0%, but mortgage rates didn’t follow suit.
• Raleigh mortgage rates actually ticked higher after the announcement — because mortgage rates live in the bond market, which moves on expectations, not Fed press releases.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remark that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion” pushed bond yields —and therefore mortgage rates—slightly upward.
• Key takeaway: the Fed can influence short-term rates, but the bond market sets your mortgage rate based on inflation and risk sentiment.
• For homeowners: Now is the moment to schedule a Mortgage Review with Kevin or Logan Martini to identify your current borrowing cost and define your personal “strike rate.”
• For buyers: Fannie Mae expects rates starting with a “5” by 2027 — lower rates will invite more buyers and higher prices. Today’s window offers leverage tomorrow won’t.
• Want proof about “yesterday’s prices”? Fresh data from Case-Shiller and FHFA shows home values still rising (+0.3% MoM, +4.8% YoY) — reinforcing that waiting often costs more than acting strategically.
• Bottom line: Control what you can — your plan, your strategy, your timing. That’s fiduciary mortgage guidance from Martini Mortgage Group.

🎥 Watch this week’s Raleigh mortgage update as Kevin Martini explains how the bond market—not the Fed—moved rates higher.

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