How the Fed Impacts Raleigh Mortgage Rates

March 20, 2022 by Kevin Martini

2.9 Trillion - is the amount of mortgage bonds the Fed has purchased since March 2020. The Fed plans to reduce its bond holdings in the coming months which could drive up mortgage rates.

This is a Special Report by Raleigh mortgage lender and Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini on how the Federal Reserve impacts Raleigh mortgage rates.

THE FED IMPACTS FIXED-RATE MORTGAGES BY BUYING AND SELLING MORTGAGE BONDS.

Raleigh interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages change whenever the Fed buys or sells mortgage bonds, and whenever the Fed makes statements about buying and selling mortgage bonds. Since the pandemic hit the economy in March 2020, the Fed has purchased an eye-popping $2.9 TRILLION of mortgage bonds, making it the biggest buyer of bonds in the market. This purchase of mortgage bonds by the Fed is what caused caused Raleigh interest rates to go down to record levels.

raleigh mortgage rates by kevin martini a raleigh mortgage broker

However, as you can see from the chart above, mortgage bond prices fell off a cliff in Q1 2022 when the Fed announced it would be scaling back its massive bond-buying program. When mortgage bond prices go down, mortgage rates go up. The average interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages went up by 1% + so far this year according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage rates.

I expect more volatility in mortgage rates as the Fed continues to release more details about when and how it plans to roll back its bond-buying programs and reduce its bond holdings.
Raleigh Mortgage Broker & Certified Mortgage Advisor, Kevin Martini

THE FED IMPACTS HOME EQUITY LINES OF CREDIT BY CHANGING THE “FED FUNDS RATE” NOT MORTGAGE RATES.

Raleigh interest rates on home equity lines of credit (a.k.a. HELOCs) change whenever the Fed lowers or increases the “Federal Funds Rate.” That’s because HELOCs are based on the Prime Rate and the Prime Rate is based on the Fed Funds rate. The Fed increased rates in March 2022 for the first time since 2018 and indicated more rate hikes are on the way. This means that rates on home equity lines of credit are likely to increase significantly by the end of 2022.

WIth the projected increase in HELOCs cost, one should consider refinancing the balance into a new first fixed rate mortgage and lock in their housing costs.
Raleigh Mortgage Broker & Certified Mortgage Advisor, Kevin Martini

Credit cards, personal loans, student loans, auto loans and business loans are directly impacted when the Fed raises rates

MARTINI MORTGAGE GROUP TOP 3 RISKS TO RALEIGH HOME LOAN RATES FOR THE BALANCE OF 2022

Inflation

The nemesis to a bond is inflation because inflation erodes the bonds return. Right now, bonds are trading at negative yields relative to inflation. For example, if a bond investor is earning 3% and the inflation rate is 7%, the investor is losing 4%. At some point, it seems likely that bond investors may demand higher yields in order to account for higher inflation. This could drive up Raleigh interest rates even higher.

The Federal Reserve

The Fed has injected an eye-popping $4.516 Trillion into the economy since March of 2020 by buying Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds. 2.9 Trillion of the 4.516 Trillion of stimulus was mortgage bonds. This infusion caused Raleigh mortgage rates to go down to record levels. As the Fed unwinds the mortgage bond purchases, many economists are anticipating that Raleigh home loan rates will rise significantly.

Good News vs. Bad News

As a primer, news impacts Raleigh mortgage rates. On the aggregate, when negative news about the economy hits the wires, investors flock to the bond market for safety, driving down interest rates. When positive news hits the wires, investors shift their bias toward stocks and away from bonds, causing interest rates to go up. Many economists are anticipating that the economy will remain strong in 2022 however with geopolitical events and unwinding of the 2.9 Trillion of mortgage bonds, it is likely that Raleigh home loan rates may go up as a result.

Let’s Chat About Raleigh Mortgage Rates and How You May Benefits from Buying a Home Or Refinancing Your Current Home.

If you have question about this article, if you have questions about buying a home as a first-time homebuyer or as a repeat homebuyer, if you have questions about refinancing your current home loan, simply call the Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial by calling (919) 238.4934.

It is going to be a big day for Raleigh real estate today

March 16, 2022 by Kevin Martini

On the economic calendar is the Fed Interest Rate Decision! It is expected they will hike their benchmark Fed Funds Rate however it is CRITICAL to know the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates.

Let’s get technical with you for a hot second. Recently, the yield spread between the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury has been trending lower. This increase in yield over time is known as the yield curve, which naturally moves up with maturity. But there is a phenomenon called an inverted yield curve, which has longer-term maturities yielding less than shorter-term maturities. This occurs when investors feel that prices in the future will decrease beneath present levels. When this goes inverted, it has been a very reliable recession indicator – YIKES!

Again, the Fed is expected to hike their benchmark Fed Funds Rate at their meeting on Wednesday March 16, 2022. This hike will push the short end of the yield curve higher, while the long end could move lower if it’s perceived that inflation is being reduced. This will cause an inversion at an even faster rate.

How will Raleigh real estate be impacted by a recession

If we are to see a recession, how will it impact housing? It is important to know recession does not mean housing bubble. Let me say it again, recession does not mean housing bubble. If look back at recessions since 1960, housing either remained essentially stable or increased in almost all of them.

Fresh on the minds of many is the recession in 2009. Please remember this fact, the recession was caused by the housing bubble, the recession did not cause the housing bubble. With the most recent recession in 2020, home prices rose.

Historically, home values perform very well during periods of inflation like we are experiencing today and during recessions too.

Is Raleigh real estate afforable?

Shifting gears, homes are still affordable today! In the most recent episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, episode 134 called “Home Affordability Today”, that dropped this week unpacks home affordability today. Spoiler alert, homes are less affordable today than they were 12-months ago however less affordable does not mean unaffordable. Real estate today remains what some call a ground floor opportunity level.

Buying a home this spring is smart and starting or continuing your homeownership journey can pay off significantly especially you take action sooner than later.
Raleigh Mortgage Broker & Certified Mortgage Advisor, Kevin Martini

Connect with a Mortgage Strategist with the Martini Mortgage Group by calling (919) 238-4934 if you want to learn more about what you have read or if you want to talk about the options available to you any your family.

The Homebuyers Opportunity This Spring

March 8, 2022 by Kevin Martini

Is there truly an opportunity for homebuyers this spring since we are in a sellers’ market? YES, there is a homebuyer opportunity this spring even with higher mortgage rates, tight inventory, and inflation. Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini goes beyond the headlines to look at the real homebuyer opportunity this spring in this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, episode 133 (note: the Martini Mortgage Podcast is available on all streaming services).

If you are a renter and there is nothing wrong with being a renter and there is a time to rent however that time is not now. Rents are rising and the only way one can truly escape rising rents is to consider purchasing a home and secure a fixed rate mortgage to lock in your housing costs.
Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini in episode 133 of Martini Mortgage Podcast

As a Certified Mortgage Advisor the hot talking points the families I serve have right now is inflation, mortgage rates and concern relating to where home values are headed.
Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini in episode 133 of Martini Mortgage Podcast

…it is sad that some fear the homebuyer’s opportunity this spring is not existent because of inflation. It seems like today every news article includes the topic of inflation. I understand why, inflation is a real thing, and you may be concerned about inflation as it relates to purchasing a home and you may think it is better to sit on the sidelines because of inflation. Inflation should not stop you from buying a home.
Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini in episode 133 of Martini Mortgage Podcast

martini mortgage group transcript episode 132 martini mortgage podcast (1)

The Homebuyers Opportunity This Spring Transcript

Are you thinking of buying a home as a first-time homebuyer? Are you a current homeowner however it is likely that soon your current house will not meet your needs or the needs of your family in the future or worse, you have already outgrown your house, or your home has outgrown you! For one that is thinking of buying a home for the first-time, for one who is a repeat homebuyer that is looking to upgrade or for one that is a repeat homebuyer looking to downsize – OH BY THE WAY, downsizing does not mean downgrading – this spring is a great time to take action.

My name is Kevin Martini, and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor and this is episode 133 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast that I am calling, the homebuyer opportunity this spring.

It is always a great time to explore the benefits homeownership. One can never be too early to explore homeownership options and one can never be too late to explore homeownership options. In case you are wondering, it is a great time right now even in a competitive market like we are in today. If you are a renter and there is nothing wrong with being a renter and there is a time to rent however that time is not now. Rents are rising and the only way one can truly escape rising rents is to consider purchasing a home and secure a fixed rate mortgage to lock in your housing costs.

Yes, I get it, inventory right now is tight and may represent a challenge but, even though the number of homes available for sale is low and could represent challenges, the search is worth it! Whatever way you look at it, homeownership is not just a stable long-term investment, homeownership allows you to lock in your housing costs for the long-term.

I know what you are saying, what about taxes and insurance? Yes, property taxes and homeowner insurance are not fixed costs since they can change from year to year and they may rise but your pure housing payment, which is the biggest portion of your housing expense will remain the same with a fixed rate mortgage.

It is a fact; homeownership can create wealth. Wealth is created by appreciation and wealth is created by the retirement of your mortgage. Listen, if you rent today you are paying for a mortgage, granted you are not paying your mortgage, you are paying your landlords mortgage for them. On the topic of wealth creation, last year the average homeowner gained $56,700 of equity and renters gained nothing.

The pandemic has highlighted that homeownership has not just tangible financial benefits but intangible benefits too! Homeownership has many perks but to me it provides me and my family with security and stability even in turbulent times like we experienced that last couple of years. Homeownership is not just about the dollar and cents however the dollar and cents make sense.

As a Certified Mortgage Advisor the hot talking points the families I serve have right now is inflation, mortgage rates and concern relating to where home values are headed. Let me share what I share with the families I serve, let me start with mortgage rates.

There is no question that today, home loan rates are higher than they were last spring but from a historical perspective, mortgage rates are low and if I may say, mortgage rates are epic today. For crumb sakes, when my wife and I purchased our first home the rate was in the mid 9’s!

In case you are wondering, experts believe that rates later this year will be higher than they are today. Yes, home loan rates are expected to continue to rise and when they do, it will cost you and your family more. Essentially when mortgage rates move upward by 1% your buying power is reduced by 10%. You just have to accept it, your buddy that purchased a home last year got a lower rate than you will today, it is what it is and however the current mortgage rate environment is still very favorable maybe not as favorable as it was but today it is more favorable than the experts are predicting by the end of the year. Here is the Kevin Martini bottom line: mortgage rates are expected to continue to rise and that means in the simplest form, it is going to cost you and your family more to wait to buy a home. If the thought of buying a home this year or maybe next year is beeping on your radar however you are waiting for rates to drop, you will be waiting in a line that is going nowhere and current home loan rate environment will be in the rearview mirror and you will likely say, ‘I wish I took advantage of the mortgage rate environment in the spring of 2022’.

Let me shift gears and talk about home values. I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor and some people call me a mortgage strategist but no one calls me a real estate agent. Since I am not real estate agent, I need to research what leading real estate experts are saying. I look at what CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors and at the Home Price Expectation Survey shares. Not one of these entities believes that home values will be lower in 2022. They all are forecasting that home prices will increase in 2022. Granted home values will likely not increase at same record levels we have seen in the past, but home prices are not going to be retreating. Here is the Kevin Martini bottom line, if you are waiting for home prices to drop because you think homes will be more affordable in a few years you need to know that there is no data that supports this. If homeownership is right for you and your family, you have a remarkable opportunity to get ahead of the curve by purchasing a home before the cost of the home goes higher and cost to ge the mortgage goes higher too!

Finally, it is sad that some fear the homebuyer’s opportunity this spring is not existent because of inflation. It seems like today every news article includes the topic of inflation. I understand why, inflation is a real thing, and you may be concerned about inflation as it relates to purchasing a home and you may think it is better to sit on the sidelines because of inflation. Inflation should not stop you from buying a home. Let me say it again for the people in the back, inflation should not stop you from buying a home if anything it should accelerate your plans.

Here is the Kevin Martini breakdown…

Home prices have been increasing and experts forecast home values will climb through the years ahead. The only way you can protect yourself from higher housing costs is by locking in a historic fixed rate mortgage rate on a home you buy sooner than later. History has shown the best hedge against inflation is a fixed housing costs.

WOW, that was a lot of stuff. If you want more information about what you heard or if you are not sure where to start let me share this fact, the homebuying process starts with the home loan not with the house. Connect with mortgage strategist with the Martini Mortgage Group by calling (919) 238-4934.

It is never too soon to explore your homeownership options…it is never too late to explore your homeownership options either. If homeownership is right for you and your family then know this…the first step is always the loan not the home.

There is never a substitute for having price and cost clarity before you start looking for a home. Get pre-approved before your home search not just pre-qualified! To a seller a pre-qualification says you are just ready and willing whereas a pre-approval with a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Group says you are ready, willing and able. It also communicates to the seller you are making a ‘same-as-cash’ offer and that is important to share in any market, especially in a tight real estate market like we are in today.

If you want trusted advice with a digital mortgage process that offer a great rate with certainty check out my website by going to: www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – you can find some real world information there and you can also securely apply online or book an appointment with me.

My name is Kevin Martini and thank you for tuning into episode 133 which has been called; ‘The Homebuyers Opportunity This Spring’

Now it is time for the disclaimer:

This material has been prepared for marketing purposes only. This is not a loan commitment or guarantee of any kind. Loan approval and rate are dependent upon borrower credit, collateral, financial history, and program availability at time of origination. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice. The Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial is a division of Celebrity Home Loans, NMLS # 227765 with a Branch address of 507 N Blount St Raleigh, North Carolina 27604. You can contract Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager, Kevin Martini NMLS# 143962 by calling the Branch and that number is 919.238.4934. For a full list and more licensing information please visit: www.NMLSConsumerAccess.org or by visiting www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – Equal Housing Lender