What is going on in real estate and home loan rates is the name of a new monthly series being produced by the Martini Mortgage Group for the Martini Mortgage Podcast. Episode 161 is the inaugural issue.
I truly believe episode 161 is one of the most important, if not the most important, that Logan and I have produced to date.
Kevin Martini, Certified Mortgage Broker
Video Edition of Martini Mortgage Podcast episode 161 called: What is going on in Real Estate and Home Loan Rates (October 2022 Edition)
Audio Edition of Martini Mortgage Podcast episode 161 called: What is going on in Real Estate and Home Loan Rates (October 2022 Edition)
Transcript of Martini Mortgage Podcast episode 161 called: What is going on in Real Estate and Home Loan Rates (October 2022 Edition)
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[kevin_martini]: there’s a lot of scary headlines out
there right now which are highlight in the
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[kevin_martini]: sudden rise of mortgage rates the increase
in house inventory people are now talking about
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[kevin_martini]: the future of real estate and then
you have inflation two this is a new
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[kevin_martini]: special video and audio edition of the
new monthly series from the markin mortgage group
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[kevin_martini]: that we are calling what is going
on now before i start mixing it up
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[kevin_martini]: i need to make those legal folks
happy so the primary purpose of this podcast
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[kevin_martini]: series is to inform entertain and educate
the information opinions and recommendations presented in this
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[kevin_martini]: podcast series do not constitute legal or
their professional advice opinions or endorsements of any
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[kevin_martini]: kind welcome to the martini mortgage podcast
episode one hundred and sixty one i’m calling
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[kevin_martini]: it what is going on in october
twenty twenty two inaugural issue my name is
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[kevin_martini]: kevin martini and i am a certified
mortgage advisor and producing branch manager and i’m
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[kevin_martini]: less one four three nine six two
with the martini mortgage group back gold star
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[kevin_martini]: gage financial group corporation and les three
four four six equal house seen lender with
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[kevin_martini]: all that said let’s dive into the
news on friday october seventh the bureau of
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[kevin_martini]: labor statistics reported that two hundred and
sixty three thousand jobs were created in september
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[kevin_martini]: twenty twenty two and this was above
the expectations the unemployment rate decrease from three
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[kevin_martini]: point seven to three point five per
cent to the data from these reports spook
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[kevin_martini]: the markets because it provides an unofficial
signal that the fad will continue on its
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[kevin_martini]: tightening journey and it is likely to
be very aggressive to get inflation under control
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[kevin_martini]: moving forward let me be clear the
fan needs tightening because they need to reduce
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[kevin_martini]: demand in the market place and this
reduced demand should be the thing that teams
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[kevin_martini]: the beast and that beast is inflation
it is my opinion the fed will raise
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[kevin_martini]: rates in the november and december meetings
i also believe the fed fung rate could
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[kevin_martini]: be increased by one and a half
point it is an undisputable fact we have
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[kevin_martini]: not seen inflation at this level for
decades and the fens actions to be transparent
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[kevin_martini]: have helped but they’ve helped incrementally but
inflation is still persistent and high this is
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[kevin_martini]: critical because inflation is the nemesis or
the arch enemy to mortgage rates you see
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[kevin_martini]: mortgage rates are not controlled by the
federal reserve nor do mortgage rates come from
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[kevin_martini]: the stock market mortgage rates live in
the bond market inflating a road the return
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[kevin_martini]: of a bond just because there is
inflation it does not mean the markets will
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[kevin_martini]: stop in the simplest of examples market
makers will offer a higher yield to a
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[kevin_martini]: mortgage bond investor when more gage bond
yield is increased that means mortgage rates will
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[kevin_martini]: go higher now i feel that the
feds actions will get inflation under control in
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[kevin_martini]: the first quarter of twenty twenty three
it’s critical that i share this based on
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[kevin_martini]: history the fact has always been late
to the party and they stayed too long
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[kevin_martini]: to the party they were clearly too
late to this party because they thought inflation
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[kevin_martini]: was transiatory not sticky the developing story
is what will they do when inflationary pressures
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[kevin_martini]: are east stay tuned i think they
will stay after the party is over and
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[kevin_martini]: then they will promoting growth rapid massive
growth and this growth will provide a sharp
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[kevin_martini]: drop in mortgage rates by the way
that’s just not me fan may has said
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[kevin_martini]: that too let’s talk about mortgage rates
for a hot second for some the current
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[kevin_martini]: rate environment was not possible however for
a long term fans of the martini mortgage
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[kevin_martini]: podcast they were advised that this was
likely to happen and for those new fans
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[kevin_martini]: let me be clear it is probable
that mortgage rates will get worse before they
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[kevin_martini]: get better it is not unthinkable that
mortgage rates could start with an eight sooner
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[kevin_martini]: than later there are advanced strategies offered
by myself and fellow morgan strategist logan martine
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[kevin_martini]: to help today and in the future
too if home ownership is right for you
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[kevin_martini]: as first time home buyer or as
a repeat home buyer one of the many
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[kevin_martini]: options is the martini mortgage group no
contract lock program with a free flow down
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[kevin_martini]: up to ninety days this is a
very simple program but it is very powerful
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[kevin_martini]: here’s how it works a future home
buyer ken lock their mortgage rate at to
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[kevin_martini]: day’s price and that price can be
protected for up to ninety days in the
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[kevin_martini]: event there’s an improvement in the rate
when the future home buyer goes under contract
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[kevin_martini]: for their new home they will have
the option to float the right down to
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[kevin_martini]: the improved right how cool is that
this unique no contract lock program can be
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[kevin_martini]: combined with a seller paid by down
program offered by the martini mortgage group for
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[kevin_martini]: more information about the seller paid by
down check out episode one five nine of
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[kevin_martini]: the martini mortgage podcast since it explains
it in great detail the benefits of a
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[kevin_martini]: seller paid by down just give you
a glimpse if that’s okay real belief fly
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[kevin_martini]: there are three types of by downs
there’s a one one by down there’s a
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[kevin_martini]: two one by down and there’s a
three to one by down for illustration only
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[kevin_martini]: let’s assume your rate you lock with
our no contract lock program at six per
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[kevin_martini]: cent and let us assume you negotiate
or two one seller paid buy down this
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[kevin_martini]: would mean in the first year your
rate would be four per cent and in
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[kevin_martini]: the second year your rate would be
five per cent and then it would go
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[kevin_martini]: to six for your three through thirty
seller paid buy downs are a win win
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[kevin_martini]: since this program benefits both the seller
and the buyer too it’s not just me
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[kevin_martini]: but it is many experts believe that
the mortgage rates will significantly improve towards the
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[kevin_martini]: end of twenty twenty three to the
beginning of twenty twenty four the experts that
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[kevin_martini]: our bullets she that could be as
soon as the second quarter of twenty twenty
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[kevin_martini]: three to be transparen i think the
bulls are being a little bit too aggressive
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[kevin_martini]: and running too fast here is the
punch line the home loan rate you get
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[kevin_martini]: today is not likely going to be
the home loan rate you will have in
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[kevin_martini]: a couple of years because when the
thed gets inflation under control again when not
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[kevin_martini]: if and while they are staying at
the party too long which they will there
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[kevin_martini]: are going to be re finance opportunities
according to fanny may as i said earlier
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[kevin_martini]: they expect rates to start with the
four sometime in twenty twenty three this is
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[kevin_martini]: why the phrase marry the house and
date the rate is being said so frequently
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[kevin_martini]: by myself my fellow mortgage strategist logan
martini and others let me break it down
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[kevin_martini]: it is very probable that mortgage rates
will increase over the next three to six
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[kevin_martini]: months to levels that millennials have never
seen and even some folks that are generation
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[kevin_martini]: exerts mortgage rates are not the only
thing going up rents are going up to
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[kevin_martini]: don’t believe me well let me share
the facts in rale north carolina from july
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[kevin_martini]: twenty twenty one to july twenty twenty
two rents for one bedroom apartment went up
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[kevin_martini]: two point one per cent and a
two bedroom apartment went up forty four point
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[kevin_martini]: eight per cent in durham the bull
city of north carolina for the same period
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[kevin_martini]: of time to every apartment went up
fifty four point two per cent you know
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[kevin_martini]: what else is going up home values
did you know that three point eight four
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[kevin_martini]: per cent is the average annual growth
in home prices from ten eighty nine to
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[kevin_martini]: two thousand nineteen check it out i
took out the eighteen point five per cent
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[kevin_martini]: of annual appreciation per year for the
last two years of this calculation because the
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[kevin_martini]: home christ growth during the presence of
the eagle pandemic was a typical so three
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[kevin_martini]: point eight four per cent is the
past what about the future it is my
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[kevin_martini]: opinion what one person says about the
future of home values is irrelevant for me
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[kevin_martini]: and for the families the martini mortgage
group serves the gold standard of future home
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[kevin_martini]: uses the home price expectation survey done
every quarter by pullsnomics and that is because
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[kevin_martini]: it’s not one person’s opinion it is
the opinion of over one hundred experts oh
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[kevin_martini]: by the way the home price expectation
survey is expecting a five year cumulative appreciation
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[kevin_martini]: of over twenty four percent closer to
twenty five actually let me get granular for
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[kevin_martini]: a hot second let me not use
the current forecast from the home price expectation
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[kevin_martini]: survey data nor the data from the
past twenty years prior to the evil pandemic
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[kevin_martini]: let me be super conservative and let
me just say three percent appreciation a year
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[kevin_martini]: for the next five years what would
this mean simply put a fifteen thousand dollar
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[kevin_martini]: down payment on a three hundred thousand
house could grow to sixty two thousand dollars
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[kevin_martini]: over five years twenty five thousand dollar
thou payment on a five hundred thousand dollar
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[kevin_martini]: house could grow to a hundred and
four thousand dollars in over five years a
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[kevin_martini]: forty five thousand dollar down payment on
a nine hundred thousand dollar home could grow
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[kevin_martini]: to a hundred and eighty eight thousand
dollars over five years not owning a home
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[kevin_martini]: could not just cost you thousands but
tens of thousands it’s in we all have
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[kevin_martini]: to have a roof over our head
some will rent it and when you rent
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[kevin_martini]: you pay a mortgage you’re not paying
your mortgage you’re just paying for your landlords
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[kevin_martini]: mortgage for them others will own that
roof and logan martini and myself help them
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[kevin_martini]: secure the proper mortgage strategy for that
roof let me say this another way for
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[kevin_martini]: the people the back the growth in
home appreciation has decelerated in twenty twenty two
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[kevin_martini]: but just because home prices have decelerated
it does not mean homes are going to
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[kevin_martini]: depreciate in the aggregate poets are going
to continue to appreciate and grant it in
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[kevin_martini]: some markets that were extra frothy we
may see a decline from their peak key
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[kevin_martini]: word is some markets right now home
buyers can still find opportunities and i believe
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[kevin_martini]: that today a home buyer has the
proper conditions to secure more buying power if
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[kevin_martini]: you’re thinking of buying a home for
the first time or as a repeat home
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[kevin_martini]: buyer simply give a mortgage strategist with
a martini mortgage group a jingle by dialing
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[kevin_martini]: nine one nine two three eight forty
nine thirty four because it should always be
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[kevin_martini]: home long first and then go find
your home okay okay okay let me talk
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[kevin_martini]: about this elephant that’s in the room
many good people were hurt during the housing
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[kevin_martini]: crisis in two thousand eight if you
are not directly impacted is likely that someone
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[kevin_martini]: you cared about was negatively impacted is
sad what happened during the housing crisis but
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[kevin_martini]: the events that caused it are not
present today sure the housing crisis caused the
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[kevin_martini]: great recession however the great recession did
not cause the housing crisis let me be
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[kevin_martini]: crystal clear recession does not housing crisis
today i am reminded by a quote from
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[kevin_martini]: warren buffet be fearful when others are
greedy and greedy when others are fearful i
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[kevin_martini]: would like to add get educated and
make an educated decision and was right for
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[kevin_martini]: you and your family based on the
facts not based on the headline or what
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[kevin_martini]: you heard the backyard barbecue there is
never a substitute for education and armed with
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[kevin_martini]: a proper knowledge you can find right
now it is time to be greedy because
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[kevin_martini]: i have confirmation more millionaires are made
when people are fearful inclosing home ownership is
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[kevin_martini]: not right for everyone and the only
way you can truly know if home ownership
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[kevin_martini]: is right for you and your family
is by searching for is not by searching
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00:14:49,102 –> 00:14:55,070
[kevin_martini]: for homes on line or by driving
all over town to visit but houses the
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[kevin_martini]: first step is always a home loan
and then once you have clarity of the
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[kevin_martini]: cost and the certainty that you can
secure the proper financing for yourself and your
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00:15:06,819 –> 00:15:12,174
[kevin_martini]: family then you can make an educated
decision if home ownership is right for you
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00:15:12,756 –> 00:15:20,539
[kevin_martini]: and your family if not it’s totally
fine but you’re making a decision based on
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[kevin_martini]: education not got but if it’s right
for you then you can go find your
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[kevin_martini]: home being lager focused and with certainty
my name is kevin martini and my fellow
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[kevin_martini]: morgan strategist is logan martini and we
are here to help you if you have
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[kevin_martini]: questions about what was in this episode
episode one sixty one of the martini morte
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00:15:41,799 –> 00:15:48,049
[kevin_martini]: podcast no we are here our number
is nine one nine two three eight forty
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00:15:48,130 –> 00:15:55,314
[kevin_martini]: nine thirty four we both look forward
to help oh by the way our website
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[kevin_martini]: has fresh and real information about securing
the proper mortgage strategy along with relevant information
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00:16:02,687 –> 00:16:09,994
[kevin_martini]: on what one needs to know if
they thinking of buying or need additional resources
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00:16:10,676 –> 00:16:19,500
[kevin_martini]: check it out by going to w
w w martini mortgage group dot com thank
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00:16:19,520 –> 00:16:24,213
[kevin_martini]: you for tuning into this new monthly
series called what the heck is going on
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00:16:24,273 –> 00:16:29,904
[kevin_martini]: in october twenty twenty two and thank
you for sharing this episode with someone you
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00:16:29,965 –> 00:16:33,941
[kevin_martini]: care about peace and blessings
