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Martini Factor Market Update 02.23.2023

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The Martini Factor provide a glimpse of what is going on with Raleigh mortgage rates and the Raleigh real estate market and provides insight why it matters.

Right now, in the mortgage rate arena, what has had a moderate impact in the past now has a heavy impact, and what had a heavy impact now has a massive impact.

Raleigh mortgage broker and Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini

BREAKING NEWS THAT WILL IMPACT RALEIGH MORTGAGE RATES

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economic growth for Q4 2022 was revised lower and the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation numbers came out much higher than market expectations. This is likely to trigger a negative reaction in the bond market and this is significant for Raleigh mortgage rates since home loan rate live in the bond market.

GDP 2nd est.

For Q4 2022 the estimate was 2.9% however the actual came in at 2.7%.

Core PCE Prices

PCE is the Federal Reserve’s favorite metric to gauge inflation. PCE basically reflects the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers and Core PCE takes out the very volatile food and energy component out of the PCE. For Q4 2022 the estimate was 3.9% however it actually came in higher with a reading of 4.3%.

FRIDAY, FRIDAY, FRIDAY (02.24.2023)

This Friday will be a very busy day ending a very short trading week.  The markets will share data on Building Permits, New Residential Sales, Personal Income & Spending, and PCE (month-over-month).  

Martini Mortgage Group

Let’s connect so we can share valid and accurate information you need to know and explain how it can impact you and your family.

Your Guide to the Housing and Mortgage Markets; The Martini Factor (September 26 – October 2, 2022 Economic Update)

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The Martini Factor is curated by Certified Mortgage Advisor and Raleigh Mortgage Broker Kevin Martini to provide a glimpse of what is likely to impact Raleigh mortgage rates this week.  

The top 2 items likely to impact Raleigh mortgage rates this week

RECESSION FEARS

As expected, the Fed increased short-term interest rates last week by 0.75%. Even though the news of an increase in the short term rate was expect, the news that rattled the stock and bond market was Fed Chairman Powell’s firm position to continue hiking rates aggressively until inflation comes down. This certainly shouldn’t have been market-moving news given that this message is being screamed from the rooftops over the past several months. However, investors apparently got spooked that continued aggressive rate hikes are likely to trigger a massive recession, with perhaps unforeseen dire consequences for the economy.

SPECIAL REPORT: The Fed Rate Hike

PCE INFLATION NUMBERS THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation is PCE (Price Consumption Expenditures). The revised Q2 numbers are scheduled for release this Thursday (9/29/2022), and last month’s numbers are scheduled for release this Friday (9/30/2022). Either of these reports could trigger a market reaction that could negatively impact Raleigh mortgage rates.

Oh by the way…

It is never too early to start to explore your homeownership options and you are not too late either.  The first part of the homeownership journey is the loan and then after you have the certainty and being armed with price and cost clarity, the second step is to go find your home. The Martini Mortgage Group offers trusted advice with a frictionless digital mortgage process that provides certainty.  To contact Mortgage Strategist with the Martini Mortgage Group simply call: (919) 238-4934.

Things to Consider when Buying a Home

If you are a first-time homebuyer or a repeat homebuyer, there are many things to consider when buying a home.  Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini and Senior Mortgage Strategist Logan Martini curated the Fall 2022 Martini Buyer Guide to simply explain the current real estate and mortgage markets plus vital information about buying a home and the process of getting a mortgage.  The Fall 2022 edition of the Martini Buyer Guide has a dozen of informative articles that talk about things one needs to know about the current real estate and mortgage markets. 

raleigh mortgage broker things to consider when buying a home martini buyer guide fall 2022 copy
A dozen powerful articles that simply and effectively communicate the current opportunity.

Your Guide to the Housing and Mortgage Markets; The Martini Factor (September 19 – September 25, 2022 Economic Update)

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The Martini Factor is curated by Certified Mortgage Advisor and Raleigh Mortgage Broker Kevin Martini to provide a glimpse of what is likely to impact Raleigh mortgage rates this week.  This week it is all about the Fed, for the people in the back let me say it again, this week it is ALL ABOUT THE FED!

WHAT’S GOING ON IN THE ECONOMY THIS WEEK AND WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Mortgage bond prices opened sharply lower on Monday, and bond yields have spiked across the board as the market places bets on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, scheduled for this Wednesday. Investors are betting that a 0.75% rate hike will take place, although many, to include the Martini Mortgage Group are betting that the Fed may hike rates by a full 1% in response to recent data showing that inflation has not yet peaked.

It is my opinion, if the Fed increases rate by 0.75% on Wednesday, mortgage rates may actually improve. Now if the Fed increases rates by 1%, mortgage rates may deteriorate.

Raleigh Mortgage Lender Kevin Martini

Most investors are betting the Fed will hike short-term rates by that amount, although some are betting on a full 1% rate hike.

IMPORTANT

Trying to time the market in this environment is a bit like trying to catch a falling knife: the odds are such that you’ll likely get cut deeply however you play it. Be prepared for lots of volatility in the market this week. For questions and live up-to-the-minute updates, contact the Martini Mortgage Group buy calling (919) 238-4934.

Oh by the way…

It is never too early to start to explore your homeownership options and you are not too late either.  The first part of the homeownership journey is the loan and then after you have the certainty and being armed with price and cost clarity, the second step is to go find your home. The Martini Mortgage Group offers trusted advice with a frictionless digital mortgage process that provides certainty.  To contact Mortgage Strategist with the Martini Mortgage Group simply call: (919) 238-4934.

Things to Consider when Buying a Home

If you are a first-time homebuyer or a repeat homebuyer, there are many things to consider when buying a home.  Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini and Senior Mortgage Strategist Logan Martini curated the Fall 2022 Martini Buyer Guide to simply explain the current real estate and mortgage markets plus vital information about buying a home and the process of getting a mortgage.  The Fall 2022 edition of the Martini Buyer Guide has a dozen of informative articles that talk about things one needs to know about the current real estate and mortgage markets. 

raleigh mortgage broker things to consider when buying a home martini buyer guide fall 2022 copy
A dozen powerful articles that simply and effectively communicate the current opportunity.