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Understanding Mortgage Rates in Raleigh: Expert Analysis and Insights from Martini Mortgage Group

March 2, 2023 by Kevin Martini

Raleigh mortgage rates have been a topic of concern for homebuyers and real estate professionals as they have drifted higher in February 2023. As February 2023 ended and March 2023 has started, the bond market has seen several days of consolidation. This has led to uncertainty about the future direction of mortgage rates, and many are wondering whether they will continue to rise or fall.

Raleigh Mortgage Market Update with Kevin Martini (video edition of Martini Factor produced 03.02.2023)

  • Consolidation occurs when the market trades within a range or trades sideways.
  • No one can predict whether the market will move up or down until there is a catalyst.
  • The Stochastic indicator is used to analyze the technical aspects of the bond market.
  • Higher bond prices lead to lower mortgage rates.
  • The Federal Reserve has a significant impact on mortgage rates.
  • Inflation and unemployment are fundamental factors that affect mortgage rates.
  • The Employment Report and CPI data are potential catalysts for mortgage rates.
  • Understanding the four stages of buyer demand can help homebuyers make the most of the current environment.

Expert Analysis and Insights by Kevin Martini

Over the last 7 trading days, the market has seen consolidation, which is when the market trades within a range or trades sideways. Until there is a catalyst, no one can predict whether the market will move up or down. However, once consolidation is broken, it may lead to a bigger move up or down. This is why the Martini Mortgage Group deploys technical analysis to help the families they serve.

From a technical perspective, we have to look at the stochastic. For Certified Mortgage Advisor and Raleigh mortgage broker Kevin Martini, the catalyst is when the stochastic goes over 20%, because that means momentum is shifting. Right now, momentum is towards the downside. To support this thesis, let’s look at October 2022 and January 2023. There was a move above 20% on the stochastic, which was the catalyst for higher bond prices. When there are higher bond prices, there is a lower yield, which means lower mortgage rates.

expert analysis and insights by raleigh mortgage broker kevin martini

Currently, there is consolidation in the market, and it is trying to form a base. From a fundamental point of view, there is not a lot of news that is going to move the market, in Kevin Martini’s opinion. There is potential for more downside based on technicals.

Where are Raleigh mortgage rates headed?

So where are Raleigh mortgage rates going? Is the bond price going to rise and cause lower Raleigh mortgage rates or are bond prices going to go lower and cause even higher Raleigh mortgage rates? The Martini Mortgage Group has two days on the radar as a catalyst. The first is March 10th when the Employment Report is released, and the second is March 14th with the release of the CPI data.

It is Kevin Martini’s opinion that these reports will improve mortgage rates, but there are no guarantees. If March 10th and 14th work out the way he predicts, it is optimistic to think we will get to the 200-day moving average, but it is possible to get to the 50-day moving average. If that happens, there will be an improvement in Raleigh mortgage rates.

Despite the current uncertainty, there is still an opportunity for homebuyers. In fact, it is an epic opportunity for a homebuyer. To maximize this opportunity, homebuyers must understand the four stages of buyer demand. These four stages are Awareness, Interest, Desire, and Action. Understanding these stages can help homebuyers make the most of the current market conditions.

martini mortgage podcast with raleigh mortgage lender kevin martini

If you are a homebuyer or if you work in the real estate community, it is essential to understand these stages. There was a great episode of the Martini Mortgage podcast, episode 173, called “4 Stages of Buyer Demand”. Perhaps a better name for this episode would be: “How homebuyers can use the 4 stages of homebuyer demand to maximize advantage”.

In closing, Raleigh mortgage rates have drifted higher in February 2023, and the bond market has seen several days of consolidation. The technicals indicate that momentum is towards the downside, but there is potential for improvement based on the upcoming Employment Report and CPI data. Homebuyers must understand the four stages of buyer demand to maximize the opportunity in the current market conditions. If you have any questions about the current state of the market or about mortgage rates in Raleigh, give Kevin Martini or his business partner and fellow mortgage strategist Logan Martini a call by dialing (919) 238-4934.

3 FAQ for Homebuyers to Know About Raleigh Mortgage Rates

Q: What is the bond market, and how does it affect mortgage rates in Raleigh?

A: The bond market is a financial marketplace where investors buy and sell bonds. Raleigh mortgage rates live in the bond market because the prices of bonds influence mortgage rates. When bond prices are high, mortgage rates are low, and vice versa.

Q: What is the Stochastic indicator, and why is it essential for analyzing the bond market?

A: The Stochastic indicator is a technical analysis tool that measures the momentum of a financial asset. It is used to analyze the bond market because it can help predict when the market is about to shift.

Q: What are the potential catalysts for Raleigh mortgage rates in March 2023?

A: The Employment Report, which is released on March 10th, and the CPI data, which is released on March 14th, are potential catalysts for Raleigh mortgage rates.

Martini Factor

Raleigh mortgage rates have drifted higher in February 2023, but the current market environment presents an epic opportunity for homebuyers. Understanding the technical and fundamental factors that affect mortgage rates can help individuals make informed decisions about their financial future. Moreover, knowing the four stages of buyer demand is critcal.

Filed Under: Home Loans, Kevin Martini, Logan Martini, Martini Factor, Martini Mortgage Podcast, MartiniFactor, Mortgage, Mortgage Broker, Mortgage Podcast, Mortgage Rates, Raleigh Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Kevin Martini, Logan Martini, Martini Factor, North Carolina, Raleigh, Raleigh Mortgage, Raleigh Mortgage Broker, Raleigh Mortgage Rates

Martini Factor Market Update 02.23.2023

February 23, 2023 by Kevin Martini

The Martini Factor provide a glimpse of what is going on with Raleigh mortgage rates and the Raleigh real estate market and provides insight why it matters.

Right now, in the mortgage rate arena, what has had a moderate impact in the past now has a heavy impact, and what had a heavy impact now has a massive impact.

Raleigh mortgage broker and Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini

BREAKING NEWS THAT WILL IMPACT RALEIGH MORTGAGE RATES

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economic growth for Q4 2022 was revised lower and the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation numbers came out much higher than market expectations. This is likely to trigger a negative reaction in the bond market and this is significant for Raleigh mortgage rates since home loan rate live in the bond market.

GDP 2nd est.

For Q4 2022 the estimate was 2.9% however the actual came in at 2.7%.

Core PCE Prices

PCE is the Federal Reserve’s favorite metric to gauge inflation. PCE basically reflects the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers and Core PCE takes out the very volatile food and energy component out of the PCE. For Q4 2022 the estimate was 3.9% however it actually came in higher with a reading of 4.3%.

FRIDAY, FRIDAY, FRIDAY (02.24.2023)

This Friday will be a very busy day ending a very short trading week.  The markets will share data on Building Permits, New Residential Sales, Personal Income & Spending, and PCE (month-over-month).  

Martini Mortgage Group

Let’s connect so we can share valid and accurate information you need to know and explain how it can impact you and your family.

Filed Under: Martini Factor, MartiniFactor Tagged With: Kevin Martini, Market Update, Martini Factor, MartiniFactor, Mortgage Tips, Raleigh

Your Guide to the Housing and Mortgage Markets; The Martini Factor (September 26 – October 2, 2022 Economic Update)

September 26, 2022 by Kevin Martini

The Martini Factor is curated by Certified Mortgage Advisor and Raleigh Mortgage Broker Kevin Martini to provide a glimpse of what is likely to impact Raleigh mortgage rates this week.  

The top 2 items likely to impact Raleigh mortgage rates this week

RECESSION FEARS

As expected, the Fed increased short-term interest rates last week by 0.75%. Even though the news of an increase in the short term rate was expect, the news that rattled the stock and bond market was Fed Chairman Powell’s firm position to continue hiking rates aggressively until inflation comes down. This certainly shouldn’t have been market-moving news given that this message is being screamed from the rooftops over the past several months. However, investors apparently got spooked that continued aggressive rate hikes are likely to trigger a massive recession, with perhaps unforeseen dire consequences for the economy.

SPECIAL REPORT: The Fed Rate Hike

PCE INFLATION NUMBERS THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation is PCE (Price Consumption Expenditures). The revised Q2 numbers are scheduled for release this Thursday (9/29/2022), and last month’s numbers are scheduled for release this Friday (9/30/2022). Either of these reports could trigger a market reaction that could negatively impact Raleigh mortgage rates.

Oh by the way…

It is never too early to start to explore your homeownership options and you are not too late either.  The first part of the homeownership journey is the loan and then after you have the certainty and being armed with price and cost clarity, the second step is to go find your home. The Martini Mortgage Group offers trusted advice with a frictionless digital mortgage process that provides certainty.  To contact Mortgage Strategist with the Martini Mortgage Group simply call: (919) 238-4934.

Things to Consider when Buying a Home

If you are a first-time homebuyer or a repeat homebuyer, there are many things to consider when buying a home.  Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini and Senior Mortgage Strategist Logan Martini curated the Fall 2022 Martini Buyer Guide to simply explain the current real estate and mortgage markets plus vital information about buying a home and the process of getting a mortgage.  The Fall 2022 edition of the Martini Buyer Guide has a dozen of informative articles that talk about things one needs to know about the current real estate and mortgage markets. 

raleigh mortgage broker things to consider when buying a home martini buyer guide fall 2022 copy
A dozen powerful articles that simply and effectively communicate the current opportunity.

Filed Under: Buy a Home, MartiniFactor, Mortgage, Mortgage Rates, Raleigh, Real Estate Tagged With: Buying a Home in North Carolina, Buying a Home in Raleigh, Kevin Martini, Logan Martini, North Carolina, Raleigh, Raleigh Mortgage Broker, Raleigh Mortgage Lender, Real Estate

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