A chat with Raleigh Real Estate Agent Bailey Weaver Packard with eXp Realty

October 6, 2022 by Kevin Martini

In a special video edition of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, Raleigh mortgage lender and Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini interviews Raleigh real estate agent Bailey Weaver Packard with eXpRealty.

Video version of ‘A chat with Raleigh Realtor Bailey Weaver Packard’

Audio version of ‘A chat with Raleigh Realtor Bailey Weaver Packard’

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Now is the real estate opportunity!

June 28, 2022 by Kevin Martini

Right now, there is noise about real estate and mortgage rates and sadly the real truth and the real opportunity is being missed. Fluctuating mortgage rates, home price deceleration and looming recession are facts but, is a recession bad for real estate values? Is there a pure need for real estate? Are home loan rates just going to get more expensive or are they going to retreat?

In this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, Certified Mortgage Advisor and Raleigh mortgage broker Kevin Martini takes a glimpse of the headlines and goes deep into the data about where home values are headed and where mortgager rates are headed.

Audio Edition of the Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini

Video Edition of the Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini

Consumer Price Index (a.k.a. CPI)

raleigh mortgage broker kevin martini cpi — It is critical one understands the CPI is a measurement from the same month last year. As shared in the Martini Mortgage Podcast, July, August and September 2021 CPI reading was low as compared to where it was in May of 2022 reading was, this signal that higher mortgage rates are coming since inflation drive mortgage rates higher.

Recession and Home Values

raleigh home values in past recessions by kevin martini — The housing market caused the great recession, the recession did not cause the housing crisis. Again, recession doe into mean housing crisis.

Housing Formations

New Home Supply

new housing supply by raleigh mortgage lender kevin martini — Today there are about 1.7 housing starts but a housing start is not a new homes built they are new home started. So that is not a metric to look at, completed homes and that is at 1.3 million but remember annually there are 100,000 homes that are destroyed. So now there are 1.2 million homes and there is a need for 1.4 million homes so there is a deficit of 200,000 homes.

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It kinda feels like we are walking the tracks in a very dark tunnel right now however, there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. What is that light coming from? Is that light from a train that is coming straight towards us or is that light a from the sunlight where we can be sitting siping a drink with an umbrella? I know that light is not coming from the bow of the train and I know that light is paradise.

To me, it appears that every news segment leads with the death of real estate or every headline online is talking how high mortgage rates are. Everyone sees these headlines but only 30% actually read the article. Crazy stat isn’t it? 70% of people make a decision on what to do based on a headline only. In this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast let me take you beyond the headlines and deep into the story that now one is talking about.

Welcome to special episode 147 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, my name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Mortgage Group which is located in Raleigh, North Carolina however myself along with my very talented crew of mortgage professionals help families in all 100 counties of North Carolina and pretty much in ever state in the U.S. too! I am calling this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast; Now is the real estate opportunity!

Deceleration of home values, inventory increasing, inflation at a four decade high, six-dollar gasoline, mortgage rates fluctuating upwards, the Fed and the evil ‘r’ word, recession! So much to unpack where do I start.

As a primer, one needs to know that mortgage rates live in the Bond market. The nemesis to a Bond is inflation because inflation erodes the return of a Bond. When Bond prices fall, to attract more buyers, a higher yield is offered. When a higher yield is offered it means there are higher home loan rates available in the market.

Higher mortgage rates did not cause inflation, inflation caused higher mortgage rates. For the people in the back, let me say it another way…inflation drives mortgage rates so when inflation rises you will see that mortgage rates rise. This is very important to understand because a driving force to Bond prices is inflation.

It is my opinion, inflation is going to get worse before it will get better so that means mortgage rates are going to get more expensive and you know what else is going to get more expensive, homes…yes, granted homes will not appreciate at the levels they have over that last several years but they are still going to appreciate. With that said, I am reminded of what my real estate partner always shares with her clients — she says: “marry the house but date the rate”. What an amazing analogy and one that is not just timeless but very timely.

Let me talk about the Consumer Price Index, which is also referred to as the CPI for a moment. At the time of this recording, which is at the last days of June 2022, the CPI had a reading of 8.6%. It is critical one understands the CPI is a measurement from the same month last year. This is very important to understand, CPI is a measurement from the same month a year ago.

Here is the the Kevin Martini forecast on inflation and mortgage rates.

First, mortgage rates will be basically at the current level until mid July 2022 and many news outlets will be claiming that inflation has peaked in mid July. When I say mid July, the pivot to even higher mortgage rates will start on July 13th.

Why do they believe people say inflation has peaked in July? Well, simply put, we know that in June 2021, the inflation reading was 0.9% and the June 2022 number will be compared to June 2021.

Here is the thing that one needs to keep top of mind. In July 2021 the CPI was at 0.5, in August 2021 the CPI was at 0.3% and in September 2021 the CPI was at 0.4%. Punchline, the CPI was low as compared to today. It is my opinion, with six dollar gasoline and with all the containers just waiting to ship from Shanghai, there will not be a rise and repeat of those percentages and… inflation will rise significantly and so will mortgage rates. Then let us pepper in the the July 27th and September 21st Fed meeting.

It would be nice if we heard the word ‘pause’ from the Fed at their September 21st meeting however I have found the Fed is always late to the party and they stay too long at the party. With that said, I see the calgary coming to help mortgage rates towards the end of 2022 but more likely in the beginning of 2023.

The rate one has today will not likely be the rate they will have in 2023 or 2024 because, based on the data, there will be rate relief and an opportunity to marry a lower rate than one has secured in 2022.

So why not just wait? Why should one marry the house and date the rate today, why not just date the house, in other words, why doesn’t one just rent and wait. I can understand why one would ask this question. The answer to the question is simple, because home values will continue to keep growing and growing and growing.

With an open heart, right now we are living in what people will call in the future the good old days of real estate. Yes, right now is still an epic time to buy a house to call home and right now is an epic time to buy a house to rent even with the fact that I believe a recession is eminent.

Yes, a recession is ahead and recessions have proven to be positive for home values. In the U.S. there have been 6 recession since 1980. 1 of the 6 was the great recession where home values went down 19.7 percent. One need to know this…the demand that was before the great recession was based on speculation and speculation made price skyrocket. The housing market caused the great recession, the recession did not cause the housing crisis. Again, recession doe into mean housing crisis.

If you take the great recession out of the equation 4 out of 5 times there was a recession in the U.S., home values went up an average of 5.5%. The one out of five time it went down, values only went down 1.9%.

There was a real estate bubble that created the great recession. The real estate bubble was created in part by speculation. Today, real estate is needed and there is an under supply.

Let me go into a little more detail on the need for housing or housing demand. Let me start with household formations. First, what is a household formation. Simple put, someone leaves mom and dad and occupies a new place. So, when one occupies a new residence without vacating your residence is a household formation. Here is another example. A couple is living together but they break up and one moves out, you now need to 2 place not one, this is another example of a household formation. In the U.S. there are 1.4 million new household formations. Oh by the way, household formations are about 20% above the average right now so simply put, this is your real demand based on need. 1.4 million people need a roof.

Today there are about 1.7 housing starts but a housing start is not a new homes built they are new home started. So that is not a metric to look at, completed homes and that is at 1.3 million but remember annually there are 100,000 homes that are destroyed. So now there are 1.2 million homes and there is a need for 1.4 million homes so there is a deficit of 200,000 homes.

Is home ownership right for you and your family, I do not know but what I do know is that you owe it to explore your options that are available. I truly believe to create generational wealth one needs to own real estate. I also know that the process of homeownership always starts with the home loan first and then go find your home. It is never find your home first and then find the right loan.

My name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor and I am here to help. I know in this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast there was a lot of data shared, I am here to answer your questions about it. If homeownership is right for you, right now is an unprecedented opportunity.

Thank you for tuning in and please share this episode with someone you care about.

Now it is time for the disclaimer:

This material has been prepared for marketing purposes only. This is not a loan commitment or guarantee of any kind.

Loan approval and rate are dependent upon borrower credit, collateral, financial history, and program availability at time of origination.

Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.

The Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial is a division of Celebrity Home Loans, NMLS # 227765 with a Branch address of 507 N Blount St Raleigh, North Carolina 27604.

You can contact Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager, Kevin Martini NMLS# 143962 by calling the Branch and that number is 919.238.4934. For a full list and more licensing information please visit: www.NMLSConsumerAccess.org or by visiting www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – Equal Housing Lender

A Raleigh Real Estate Crash Coming Soon, NOT!

May 19, 2022 by Kevin Martini

A topic that is on the mind of many potential first-time homebuyers and current homeowners in Raleigh, North Carolina and really in every city in the U.S. is, are heading into a housing crash because we are in a housing bubble that is going to burst.

Raleigh Mortgage Broker and Certified Mortgage Lender, Kevin Martini, hosts a very special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast called: A Real Estate Crash Coming soon, NOT!

Episode 143 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast goes beyond the real estate headlines and deep into the data.

Home Price Appreciation Since 1945

best raleigh mortgage broker kevin martini histporical raleigh appreciation since 1945

Forbearance Data

best raleigh mortgage broker kevin martini

Lending Standards

Foreclosure Activity

Home Price Forecast for 2022

Home Price Expectation Survey | Q1 2022

raleigh mortgage broker kevin martini 507 n blount st raleigh nc 27604

Episode 143 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini Transcript

A topic that is on the mind of many potential first-time homebuyers and current homeowners in Raleigh, North Carolina and really in every city in the U.S. is…are heading into a housing crash because we are in a housing bubble that is going to burst.

I truly understand why many are concerned with the idea we are in a housing bubble and it is going to burst because 15-years ago we saw home prices fall and it was very painful.

Let me properly communicate this…2022 is not 2008!

Welcome to episode 143 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, my name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Mortgage Group which is located in Raleigh, North Carolina however myself along with my very talented crew of mortgage professionals help families in all 100 counties of North Carolina and pretty much in ever state in the U.S. too! I am calling this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast; A Real Estate Crash Coming Soon, NOT!

Opinions are like belly buttons, everyone has one. Some opinions are based on what one feels and some opinions are based on data. I believe when you use data to form an opinion it clears the path so one can make an educated decision based on facts. I believe educated decisions puts you ahead of the crowd.

Some folks feel we are in a real estate bubble and this bubble is going to burst and when it burst it is going to cause a housing crash like we saw in 2008. If you feel this way, with respect, you are incorrect. Let me share with you why we are not in a housing bubble and why we are not heading into a housing bubble.

Let me start with when the modern day housing boom started and that was 1945. World War II ended and soldiers were coming back and they were using the earned VA benefit where they could buy a home. Ever since then and up to today…there has ONLY been one time where homes in the U.S. lost a significant value and that was in 2008.

Why did we see homes lose value in 2008?

There were several reasons why homes lost value and they were from pure market speculation to, over supply to, very loose lending standards among other things.

When I say very loose lending standards, I mean back then you could secure a home loan with no income so a job was not required hence there was no verification of employment was even asked for. Think about it, you could buy a home or take money out of your home without really being able to qualify or have the ability to repay the home loan. Simply put, many people that were unable to afford a home were able to buy a home.

I feel it is natural to be concerned if today people are able to make their mortgage payments. Since the evil pandemic reared its ugly head, many families had to go into forbearance. In the simplest form, forbearance is a loan deferment where one can temporarily stop making payments.

About 4.8 million used forbearance to navigate during the pandemic and today there are less than 700,000 loans in forbearance as of April 2022. The number of mortgages in forbearance has dropped significantly and it is true, not everyone will be able to get out of forbearance successfully however that number is very low but rember this, the families that have not been able to recover are not upside-down on the the home and they have the ability to sell and retain a gain to get on with rebuilding. This is very different than what happened 15-years ago.

Aggressive lending standards were one of the components of the housing crisis, and let’s look at where we are today. Today lending standards are nothing like they were in the 2000s.

Consider home loan product risk and borrower risk. Think of the designer mortgage product risk as the all loans that are available to people such as NINA, which was an acronym for no income no assets or SISA, which was an acronym for stated income stated assets. These designer mortgage products have been virtually eliminated from the marketplace.

Oh by the way, these loan programs were not bad products in my opinion. Crazy statement? Not really, when you know these products had a place for the right borrower based on thier situation but these products were sold by some very bad actors to the the wrong people.

Today when getting a mortgage, there is a common sense approach to your ability to repay the home loan. Has it gotten harder. Well, yes if you compare it to the 2000’s but, common sense is still present with underwriting with the Martini Mortgage Group and I feel that product risk and borrower risk is balanced today.

Don’t believe me? Well, today we are at all time low with foreclosure activity. Sure, the last couple of years there has been a moratorium in place and the federal government has stepped in and said, look, we’re not going to process these foreclosures during the pandemic. However, back during the housing crisis, it was tragic that over nine million people went through foreclosure.

Listen, foreclosure are sadly always going to happen because bad things happen to good people. It is sad but it is a reality. Today with the common sense lending standards that have been deployed has led to less foreclosures in the marketplace pre-pandemic and post pandemic.

In other words, with highly qualified or a better qualified borrower, you’re going to see less defaults and we’re seeing exactly that and provides additional confirmation that the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train coming at us but it is rays of sunshine.

I had a conversation with a family I am working with and they were concerned about a ton of things and I understood and I appreciated their concerns. They felt like you may feel…let us see if that is the case. They felt homes are getting too expensive and people are not going to be able to support their debt load and this would cause a collapse in the housing market.

I understand the thought process but the data does not support the thesis because if you look at data from the Federal Reserve, household debt service ratio for mortgages and basically it measures the percentage of disposal personal income. So, think about the total mortgage payments divided by the total disposal personal income. Make sense?

Where the household debt service ratio is for mortgages right now much much lower than where we were in the housing crisis, even lower than we were in the 80s and 90s. And why is that? Because of rising wages. Because of interest rates that we’ve seen. And because folks that are holding mortgages today are in a much, much better position than where they were back in the housing crisis of ‘08.

So is there a bubble forming or are we in a bubble that is getting ready to burst – NO! No there is not a bubble forming and NO we are not in a bubble that is getting ready to burst. There is not an imminent housing crisis however we are right now in a housing boom!

I believe when we look back at 2022 3 to 5 years from now we will call this period of time the good old days of real estate. In other words, you will be with either be very happy that you purchased a home in 2022 or you will wish you would have purchased a home in 2022.

To highlight, Let us look at where we headed. Home prices are higher and Raleigh mortgage rates are higher and getting a mortgage today is a process not an event and then all the chatter from the Federal Reserve…what does it all mean for home values.

Simply put, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CoreLogic, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, Zellman and the Home Price Expectation Survey are the 7 entities the Martini Mortgage Group follows religiously to gauge the future of home values and the average of all 7 say that home values in 2022 will go up 9%.

Are homes going to lose value, well the experts don’t see that. Now we are going to see a deceleration of home values in 2022 as compared to 2021 however declaration does not mean depreciation. Declaration simply means that homes are not going to appreciate as fast as they have. I think deceleration is a good thing and is a sing of a healthy sustainable housing market.

If we want to look beyond 2022 I believe the best survey to look at is the Home Price Expectation Survey which is done by Pulsenomics. The Home Price Expectation Survey is not one persons opinion it is the opinion of a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists and housing market analysts and they project 9% appreciation this year, 4.74% next year, 3.67% appreciation in 2024, 3.41% in 2025 and 3.57% in 2026. That is a 5-year cumulative appreciation of 26.8%.

Oh by the way, 3.84% is the average annual growth in home prices from 1989 to 2019. I was purposeful not to add the last 2-years which has been north of 20% per year to give you some perspective how strong the market has been and will continue to be.

Let me wrap it up. The market today is nothing like the market was 15-years ago. I did not mention it but it is noteworthy to share there are more households today than there were in in 2007. In 2007 there were 116 million households and today there are 130 million households. That is 14 million more households looking for home. In 2007 there are 3.7 million homes for sale and today there are under 900,000 home for sale. More demand and less supply — yikes!

I know there are inventory challenges and mortgage rates have drifted upwards and sure it would have cost less if you purchased 12-months ago but I am reminded of that old Chinese proverb.

“The best time to plant a tree was 20-years ago. The second best time is now.”

Right now is the time to explore your homeownership options as a first-time or as repeat homebuyer. Perhaps you are living in your house that you own but you and your family have outgrown it— now is the time to upgrade. Perhaps you are renting and paying your landlords mortgage for them, now is time to explore your options.

My name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Mortgage Group. I provide trusted advice with a frictionless process that offers great rates and certainty to you and your family. My number is 919.238.4934.

Looking forward to connect, stay safe out there and wishing you peace and blessings.