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The Logan Martini Market Update (June 6, 2022)

June 6, 2022 by Kevin Martini

Raleigh mortgage broker and mortgage strategist, Logan Martini, shares what happened last week and what to expect this week in the Logan Martini Market Update (week ending June 10, 2022).

LAST WEEK IN THE REAL ESTATE & MORTGAGE MARKETS

Last week 2 important pieces of data were released; the Unemployment Rate held steady in May 2022 and home appreciation surged.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, what does it really show?

390,000 jobs were created in May and that was stronger than the 320,000 expectations however there were negative revisions to the data for previous months (e.g. March & April) which diluted the number some. It is important to know that the headline Unemployment Rate removes people who are not actively searching for a job and there were almost 6 million people that are not being counted who “want a job” but have not looked in the last four weeks. The U-6 all-in unemployment rate, which adds back all these individuals and is more indicative of the true unemployment rate, increased for the second month in a row, rising from 7% to 7.1%. This could be a signal on unemployment and a sign that things are slowing, and we may have seen the low in unemployment.

HOME PRICES are higher today than a year ago!

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices rose 2.6% in March and 20.6% year-over-year. This annual reading is an increase from the 19.8% gain in the previous report.  If this pace of monthly appreciation continues, and we are showing no reason why it would not, appreciation could be over 30% this year!

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) also released their House Price Index. This report measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conventional loan amounts, which means it most likely represents lower-priced homes. Home prices rose 1.5% in March and 19% year-over-year.

Up, up & up are rents according to the Apartment List’s National Rent Report which revealed that rents increased by 1.2% in May and 15.3% year-over-year.

THIS WEEK IN THE RALEIGH MORTGAGE MARKETS

The economic calendar is quiet this week, except for May’s consumer inflation report scheduled for release on Friday. The market is expecting year-over-year consumer inflation to come in at 8.3%, which would be consistent with April’s inflation rate.

There won’t be any speeches from Fed policymakers this week, due to their one-week “blackout” period before their monetary policy meeting. This may contribute to the uneasy silence and tension in the market this week. Are we in the calm before the storm?

On Friday, the calm may be disrupted if Friday’s inflation numbers come out above or below market expectations. At this point, the market is expecting the Fed to increase short-term interest rates by 0.5% at their monetary policy meeting next week. It will be interesting to see if the odds change toward a more aggressive stance after Friday’s inflation report.

The Martini Mortgage Group will not just be watching for the inflation report that will be released on Friday but will be closely watching the Wednesday’s10-year Note and Thursday 30-year Bond auctions for demand.

THE LOGAN MARTINI BOTTOM LINE

Be prepared for more volatility and remember, right now, real estate and the current mortgage rate environment remains an opportunity. From a historical perspective, home loan rates are still very low even with the upward movement in 2022. Mortgage Strategists with the Martini Mortgage Group are here to talk about what you have just read and available to help you on the path to buying you home. Contact the Martini Mortgage Group by dialing (919) 238-4934.

Logan Martini

logan martini raleigh mortgage lender with martini mortgage group 2

Logan Martini | NMLS 1591485 | Senior Mortgage Strategist | Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial Group (powered by Celebrity Home Loans, LLC NMLS 227765) | 507 N Blount St Raleigh, NC 27604 | (919) 238-4934 | www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com | [email protected] | nmlsconsumeraccess.org | Equal Housing Lender

Filed Under: Appreciation, Buy a Home, Fed Funds Rate, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Home Values, Housing Market, Kevin Martini, Logan Martini, Mortgage Rates, Nonfarm Payrolls, Real Estate, Wake County Tagged With: Buying a Home in North Carolina, Buying a Home in Raleigh, Kevin Martini, Logan Martini, Mortgage Markets, North Carolina, Raleigh, Raleigh Mortgage Broker, Raleigh Mortgage Company, Raleigh Mortgage Lender, Real Estate

The MartiniFactor | last week and this week with real estate and mortgage rates | April 8, 2022 Edition

April 4, 2022 by Kevin Martini

The MartiniFactor provides a glimpse of what happened last week in real estate and in the mortgage arena.  In addition, it shares thoughts on what to keep on the radar for the week ahead.

last week (4/1/2022) & this week (4/8/2022)

LAST WEEK

Employment Data

On Friday, April 1, 2022, we learned that 431,000 jobs were created in March of 2022. The market was expecting 500,000 jobs however there were upward revisions to the January and February reports which made up for the miss and confirmed that hob creation was strong.

Inflation 

This past week we saw data on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The PCE is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation.  The headline number indicated that inflation is on the rise since it rose 0.6% in February. Year-over-year the PCE increased from 6% to 6.4% which is the highest level in 40 years.  Core PCE strips out volatile energy and foods prices  and that was up 0.4%…year-over-year, Core PCE increased from 5.2 to 5.4%

 The nemesis to mortgage rates in Raleigh is inflation. 

Raleigh Mortgage Lender & Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini

Housing News

The Case-Schiller Home Price Index, which measures the changes in sales prices of single-family homes certain markets showed a home prices increased 1.1% in January and 19.2% year-over-year.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conventional (a.k.a. conforming) loans rose 1.6% in January and 18.2% year-over-year.

THINGS ON THE MARTINI MORTGAGE GROUP RADAR THIS WEEK

The economic calendar is relatively quiet this week after last week’s wealth of data. Many are thinking that the Federal Reserve could move interest rates significantly higher than the markets currently expect. The Martini Mortgage Group will be  paying close attention to the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, scheduled for release this Wednesday. 

Raleigh mortgage rates have already increased by more than 1% since the beginning of the year. Even so, the market may take a little break from the recent volatility due to a relatively quiet economic calendar this week. That doesn’t mean the volatility is over.  

The Martini Mortgage Group Bottom Line

Right now, real estate and the current mortgage rate environment remains an opportunity. The Martini Mortgage Group is here to talk about what you have just read and here to help you on the path to buying you home. Contact the Martini Mortgage Group by dialing (919) 238-4934.

Kevin Martini | NMLS 143962 | Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager | Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial Group (powered by Celebrity Home Loans, LLC NMLS 227765) | 507 N Blount St Raleigh, NC 27604 | (919) 238-4934 | www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com | [email protected] | nmlsconsumeraccess.org | Equal Housing Lender

Filed Under: MartiniFactor, Mortgage Rates, Raleigh, Real Estate, Uncategorized Tagged With: Buying a Home in North Carolina, Buying a Home in Raleigh, Buying a home this spring, Kevin Martini, Martini Mortgage Group, MartiniFactor, Mortgage Markets, Mortgage Tips, Raleigh, Raleigh Mortgage Broker, Raleigh Mortgage Company, Real Estate Markets

The MartiniFactor | last week and this week with real estate and mortgage rates | April 1, 2022 Edition

March 28, 2022 by Kevin Martini

The MartiniFactor provides a glimpse of what happened last week in real estate and in the mortgage arena.  In addition, it shares 3 things to keep on the radar for the week ahead.

last week (3/25/2022) & this week (4/1/2022)

LAST WEEK

New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales

If you just look at the headlines and don’t read the full story, it is understandable one could be scared about real estate.  Last week reports were released that showed a decline in New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales too – OH MY! It is critical to know the major reason for the decline was not a deceleration of demand but low supply.

Let me get granular on Pending Home Sales, they fell 4.1% in February, which was weaker than expected and comparing February of 2021 to February 2022, Pending Home Sales were down 5.4%.  Sure, one could say the decline was caused by higher mortgage rates, but I do not think so.  The real story behind the decline is inventory.

The Fed and Raleigh Mortgage Rates

There was a lot of Fed chatter last week.  Here is what one needs to know, the Fed has 2 tools on their belt to tighten the economy and they are: 1) increase their benchmark Fed Funds Rate and 2) reduce their balance sheet. 

Over time, it is my opinion, the Fed raising the Fed Funds Rate will be a good thing for Raleigh mortgage rates because the Fed should be able to curb inflation and preserve fixed return on mortgage bonds.  You see, mortgage rates live in the bond market and inflation is the nemesis to a bond.  With inflation in check, Raleigh home loan rates will improve but from a historical perspective, Raleigh mortgage rates are still very low.

As a primer, the Fed purchased $2.9 trillion of mortgage bonds since March 2020. As the Fed plans to reduce it mortgage bond holdings in the coming months it could cause Raleigh mortgage rates to increase.

3 THINGS ON THE MARTINI MORTGAGE GROUP RADAR THIS WEEK

Major Economic Reports on the State of the Jobs Market

The closely-watched jobs report is scheduled for release this Friday (4/1/2022). In addition to looking at the unemployment rate and the number of jobs created in March, the market will closely examine the “average earnings” component of Friday’s jobs report. It’s widely expected that wages will have jumped by roughly 5.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the ADP employment report is due for release on Wednesday, and this is often interpreted as a sneak peek into Friday’s official numbers. Also, the JOLTS Job Openings report is due for release on Tuesday and is expected to show over 11 million job openings in the economy, the highest numbers on record.

PCE Inflation Reports

The Fed’s favorite measurement of inflation is the PCE inflation report and we’ll get two perspectives on that this week. On Wednesday, we’ll get the quarterly inflation numbers for Q4 2021, and on Thursday we’ll get the monthly inflation numbers for February. Both reports are expected to show up to 5.5% year-over-year annual consumer inflation.

The Fed’s Reaction

The Federal Reserve indicated in recent weeks it will be removing its pandemic-era stimulus programs and increasing interest rates more aggressively, starting with its monetary policy meeting in May. This caused bond prices to plummet across the entire global bond market with mortgage rates jumping by more than 1% since the beginning of the year according to the Freddie Mac weekly survey of mortgage rates. The volatility is likely to continue as the market continues to react.

The Martini Mortgage Group Bottom Line

Right now, real estate and the current mortgage rate environment remains an opportunity. The Martini Mortgage Group is here to talk about what you have just read and here to help you on the path to buying you home. Contact the Martini Mortgage Group by dialing (919) 238-4934.

Kevin Martini | NMLS 143962 | Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager | Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial Group (powered by Celebrity Home Loans, LLC NMLS 227765) | 507 N Blount St Raleigh, NC 27604 | (919) 238-4934 | www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com | [email protected] | nmlsconsumeraccess.org | Equal Housing Lender

Filed Under: MartiniFactor, Mortgage Rates, Raleigh, Real Estate, Uncategorized Tagged With: Buying a Home in North Carolina, Buying a Home in Raleigh, Buying a home this spring, Kevin Martini, Martini Mortgage Group, MartiniFactor, Mortgage Markets, Mortgage Tips, Raleigh, Raleigh Mortgage Broker, Raleigh Mortgage Company, Real Estate Markets

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