Rising Raleigh mortgage rates impact on home prices

April 12, 2022 by Kevin Martini

During the first quarter of 2022 the average principal and interest payment on a $100,000 home loan went up by about $100 courtesy of rise in Raleigh home loan rates. It is expected that Raleigh mortgage rates will continue to rise in 2022 and what will the impact of higher mortgage rates be on home values in the Triangle of North Carolina?

In this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, episode 138, Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini, unpacks the data on the impact of rising mortgage rates on the housing market (e.g. appreciation and sales).

There are 6 times in recent history where mortgage rates moved more than 1%. The average increase in home loan rates during those 6 periods of time was 1.46% and the average home price increase was 8%. Historically speaking, rising home loan rates has a positive impact on home prices.
Raleigh Mortgage Lender & Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini

As discussed in episode 138 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast

changes in home values when mortgage rates rise more than 1 martini mortgage group.001

Transcript of episode 138 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini

rising mortgage rates impact on housing martini mortgage podcast

There is no question that mortgage rates today are higher than they we last week, last month or even last quarter and even last year or the year before that. In 2022, there has been an acceleration of mortgage rates, when I say acceleration, 2022 started basically right at 3% and today mortgage rates are basically at 5%. The first quarter of 2022 is not the first time that there was a significant increase in mortgage rates. How are these rising mortgage rates going to impact the housing market?

Welcome to episode 138 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, my name is Kevin Martini, and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Mortgage Group which is located in Raleigh, North Carolina however I help families in all 100 counties of North Carolina and pretty much in every state in the U.S. too. I am calling this special episode, rising mortgage rates impact on housing.

Freddie Mac publishes the Primary Mortgage Market Survey every week and they have done this since 1971. At the end of December of 2021, the 30-year fixed mortgage per their lender survey was at 3.11%. On March 31, 2022, their lender survey was at 4.67%. In the first quarter of 2022, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased 1.5%.

Let me get granular what that this means. The average principal and interest payment on a 30-year fixed mortgage has increased about $100.00 dollars a month per $100,000 borrowed in the first quarter of 2022. WOW, that means a $300,000 mortgage would have had a $300 a month increase in payment in the first quarter. I can understand how one would think that this rise of mortgage rates is going to impact housing negatively but is it? Will this rise in home loan rates means decline in home values in the future? Will mortgage rates keep rising at this pace? And what does it mean for housing? All great questions.

Let me tackle the future of mortgage rates. It is my opinion and the opinion of many industry experts that home loan rates will move even higher during 2022. I feel the rate of increase, no pun intended, will not be as aggressive as it has been however there are so many external factors influencing the markets that could negate that statement, specifically the Federal Reserve unwinding their balance sheet of 2.7 trillion in mortgage bonds.

You see, mortgage rates live in the Bond market as a Mortgage Backed Security. When Bond prices rise, yield is lowered and when yield is lower than mortgage rates are lower. Now when Bond prices are lower, yield rises to attract more investors. When yield rises so does home loan rates in Raleigh, North Carolina and in every state in the U.S.

The Federal Reserve purchase of these 2.9 trillion dollars of mortgage bonds started in March of 2020, and these purchases continued during the evil pandemic and this caused historic mortgage rates. It is not if the Fed will sell, it is when Fed will sell these Bonds. When they do, buckle up. The Federal Reserve decision on short term interest rates really doesn’t impact mortgage rates in the short term but in the long term, their control of short-term rates could temper inflation and when inflation is under control that is good for mortgage rates.

WOW! I went on a rant for a moment there, let me get back to the impact on rising rates on home prices. There are 6 times in recent history where mortgage rates moved more than 1%. The average increase in home loan rates during those 6 periods of time was 1.46% and the average home price increase was 8%. Historically speaking, rising home loan rates has a positive impact on home prices.

Let me break down the periods of time. Period number 1 started in October 1993 and ended in December 1994…during those 14-months the mortgage rate increased 2.38% and during that same period home prices went up 3%.

Period number 2 started in January 1996 and ended in September 1996…during those 8 months rates increased 1.2% and home prices went up 2%.

Period number 3 started in October 1998 and went on for 19 months so ending in May 2000. Home values went up 13%.

Period 4 started In June 2022 and went on for a year. Mortgage rates increased 1.06% and home values went up 13%.

Period 5 started in June of 2005 and ended in July 2006…during those 13-months, home loan rates increased 1.18% and home values went up 7%.

And in the 6^th period which started in November 2012 and ended in December 2013 which was 13-months, mortgage rates increased 1.11% and home prices went up 11%.

Let me say it again, recent history has shown an increase in home values when home loan rates have increased more than 1%. I believe this recent move in home loan rates in 2022 will yield an unprecedented historic increase in home prices not just because the increase in mortgage rates but in addition to the fact we have today, low inventory levels of homes for sale. When you see headlines that say home sales are down that is because there are not enough roofs available for sale not because there is not a lot of people that need and want roof.

Let me share a Kevin Martini audio nugget with you. 2021 will go down as one of the best years in real estate history. Many people made more money with their home than they did at their job in 2021. Will 2022 be a rinse and repeat of 2021? I think so!

With that said, I do not think that home sales will be as high as they were in the past and that is not because of the lack of demand, it will be because of the lack of supply. I do believe that home appreciation will continue in 2022 and for many years to come but not at the level they had in 2021.

Let me say what I said in a different way so there is no misunderstanding. Home values are forecasted to appreciate this year and beyond for that matter in the 5-year forecast. In the April 2022 Raleigh Real Estate Report Card, it highlights that the median home price in Raleigh, North Carolina today is $395,673 and in 60-months that median priced home is expected to be over 24% higher which put sits value at $491,343. So, getting micro with the Raleigh, North Carolina real estate market, homes are expected to appreciate over 9% in 2022. Last year, in North Carolina, homes appreciated north of 21%. 2022 may not be as strong in appreciation as it was in 2021 but it is still going to be strong.

Real estate today represents a rare opportunity, and it is never to soon or too late to explore your options. You have not missed out, but you need to take steps pretty darn soon to take advantage because home values are headed upwards and so are mortgage rates.

If you have questions about what you have heard in this episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, I am here. If you want trusted advice with a digital mortgage process that offer a great rate with certainty check out my website by going to: www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – you can find some real world information there and you can also securely apply online or book an appointment with me. Be sure to check out the April 2022 Raleigh Real Estate Report Card which can be found in the learning center.

Thank you for tuning in and thank you in advance for sharing this episode with someone you care about that could benefit. My name is Kevin Martini and this was episode 138 which has been called; ‘Rising mortgage rates impact on housing.”

Now it is time for the disclaimer:

This material has been prepared for marketing purposes only. This is not a loan commitment or guarantee of any kind. Loan approval and rate are dependent upon borrower credit, collateral, financial history, and program availability at time of origination. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice. The Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial is a division of Celebrity Home Loans, NMLS # 227765 with a Branch address of 507 N Blount St Raleigh, North Carolina 27604. You can contract Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager, Kevin Martini NMLS# 143962 by calling the Branch and that number is 919.238.4934. For a full list and more licensing information please visit: www.NMLSConsumerAccess.org or by visiting www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – Equal Housing Lender

Raleigh, NC (Wake County) Real Estate Report Card for April 2022

April 2, 2022 by Kevin Martini

The Martini Mortgage Group which has its headquarters in Raleigh publishes every month the Raleigh, NC (Wake County) Real Estate Report Card and this is the April 2022 edition. The key metrics applied are Median Home Price, Appreciation, Population, and Affordability.

Median Home Price

A key indicator for market trends and market conditions is the Median Home Price. Simply put, the Median Home Price is the middle price point for real estate prices and it is not the same as Average Home Price.

The Median Home Price is my preferred metric because it is less impacted by a few atypical high or low sales in the Raleigh market.
Certified Mortgage Advisor, Kevin Martini

Wake County, North Carolina Median Home Price

raleigh median home price raleigh mortgage lender martini mortgage group

Appreciation

In the April 2022 Real Estate Report Card, the Martini Mortgage Group looks at historical appreciation and forecasted appreciation based on from leading industry experts. Important to note, appreciation is just a forecast and not a guarantee of future performance.

raleigh forecasted appreciation raleigh mortgage lender martini mortgage group april 2022

Population

1 million plus (1.06M) call Wake County, North Carolina home and it is one of the fastest growing counties in North Carolina. In addition, it is the largest county in North Carolina with a 25% growth rate. Daily growth is 60+ people per day.

AFFORDABILITY

Oh By The Way

It is never too early to start to explore your homeownership options and you are not too late either. The first part of the homeownership journey is the loan and then after you have the certainty and being armed with price and cost clarity, the second step is to go find your home. The Martini Mortgage Group offers trusted advice with a frictionless digital mortgage process that provides certainty. To contact a Mortgage Strategist with the Martini Mortgage Group simply call: (919) 238-4934.

Martini Mortgage Podcast

Homeownership has so much to offer financially but it can also positively impact your life today and impacts future generations. In this special episode Certified Mortgage Advisor , Kevin Martini, share 6 Financial Benefits for Homeownership. Each benefit is powerful by itself but when you consider the layers of benefits to homeownership, it is an opportunity that needs further investigation if it is right for you and your family.

The 6 benefits that are explained in detail in episode 135 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast are: Leverage, Housing Cost, Forced Savings, Tax Benefits, Hedge Against Inflation and Non-Financial Benefits.

Listen to the full episode and to learn more or to learn how homeownership can help you, connect with Kevin Martini with the Martini Mortgage Group by calling (919) 238-4934.

6 Financial Reasons for Homeownership in Raleigh, North Carolina

March 23, 2022 by Kevin Martini

Homeownership has so much to offer financially but it can also positively impact your life today and impacts future generations too! Raleigh Mortgage Broker and Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini published a special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast highlights 6 Financial Reasons for Homeownership.

financial reasons for homeownership raleigh mortgage lender logan martini

Raleigh Homeownership Provides Leverage

Leverage is the use of borrowed money to increase your return. Housing is one of the only leveraged investments available today.

Raleigh Homeownership Locks In Your Housing Costs

The only way one can escape rising rents is to consider purchasing a home and locking in your monthly housing payment with a fixed rate mortgage payment.

Raleigh Homeownership Is Usually A Form Of Forced Savings

Every month when you write the check for your mortgage you are not only paying interest, you are also paying principal.

Raleigh Homeownership May Provide Substantial Tax Benefits

If you itemize your taxes you may be able to deduct the mortgage interest you pay on your Federal taxes and State and Local Taxes (SALT) may also be tax deductible on Federal and State taxes too.

Raleigh Homeownership Provides Protection From Inflation

Owning a home is typically a hedge against inflation.

Raleigh Homeownership Provides Non-Financial Benefits

When considering to buy a home you need to to have price and cost clarity of the the dollars and cents but you cannot forget to weigh the non-financial benefit that could truly change your life.

It is never too soon or too late for homeownership

It is never too soon to explore your homeownership options…it is never too late to explore your homeownership options either. If homeownership is right for you and your family then know this…the first step is always the loan not the home.

There is never a substitute for having price and cost clarity before you start looking for a home. Get pre-approved before your home search not just pre-qualified! To a seller a pre-qualification says you are just ready and willing whereas a pre-approval with a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Group says you are ready, willing and able. It also communicates to the seller you are making a ‘same-as-cash’ offer and that is important to share in any market, especially in a tight real estate market like we are in today.

If you want trusted advice with a digital mortgage process that offer a great rate call either Logan Martini or Kevin Martini with the Martini Mortgage Group.

martini mortgage podcast best raleigh mortgage broker kevin martini financial reasons for homeownership — 6 Financial Reasons for Homeownership

There is nothing wrong with renting. In fact there is a time to rent however that time is not now. Do not fret, I am going to unpack this bold statement in a few moments in this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast.

Welcome and thank you for tuning in, my name is Kevin Martini and I am not just the host of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, I am also a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Mortgage Group which is located in downtown Raleigh, North Carolina. We may have our headquarters in North Carolina however myself and my crew help families all over the U.S. create generational wealth with financing real estate.

Episode 135 is called – 6 Financial Reasons for Homeownership you could also call this episode 6 reason to buy a home in Raleigh or anywhere city in North Carolina or any city in the U.S. for that matter.

Now let me share, recently I was a the grocery store buying my Cocoa Pebbles, yes – – – you know he cereal, and yes, it turns the milk chocolate. Any who, I heard someone say:

‘Excuse me Mr. Martini’

…I immediately got excited because I thought my dad was in the cereal aisle at the grocery store with me but then I realized the chap was talking to me. I responded by saying…

‘I know I have been in the financial services since the mid 80’s however I am just Kevin, my dad is Mr. Martini’

The young man’s name was Stephen and he is a younger millennial an he asked me if he should buy a home now or wait. My response was not yes not no — it was, ‘it depends’.

I know what you are thinking, I should of just said ‘ yes you should’ but if I did that it would be wrongs. You see no one on YouTube, no one on Facebook or Instagram and no one on a Mortgage Podcast or any podcast for that matter and most definitely no mortgage app that can take you to the moon on a rocket can tell you if it is a good, or a smart idea for you to buy a home. Homeownership is right for many but not all. You see, every family I have the privilege to work with is different. There is not a cookie cutter response to Stephen’s question.

Think about this for a moment…getting a mortgage is a big deal, it is a financial instrument just like a stock or a bond that you may buy in your portfolio. You would never buy a stock without making sure it properly fit into your portfolio, would you? You should not just buy a house because someone says you should…everyone is different.

Listen, if you are looking for someone that who just peddles mortgages, then hit the stop button because this is not me! Again, for many, buying a home makes sense — for some it does not. This is something I can help determine when we first connect together. With an open heart, in order to create generational wealth, one needs to own real estate. If homeownership is right for you taking action sooner than later could save you tens of thousands.

Now if buying a home is right for you and your family then I want to share some of the financial benefits associate with buying a home and getting a mortgage with the Martini Mortgage Group with PCL Financial. In this episode, episode 135 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, I am going to share 6 Financial Reasons to Buy a home.

Are you ready? Let is start making this mixing this cocktail.

Number 1 is leverage.

Housing is one of the only leveraged investments still available today. Simply put, leverage is the use of borrowed money to increase your return. To illustrate let us assume that you want to buy a home in Raleigh and home is priced at say $500,000 and you have twenty percent saved. For this that are not quick with math, 20% of 500,000 is 100,000.

So let us look at the transaction in detail…You would buy the home for $500,000 and you would put 20% down, that is $100,000 and you would get an epic mortgage rate on your $400,000 mortgage with me, Kevin Martini, your Certified Mortgage Advisor.

Now let us fast forward say 1-year…in other words, you own the home and you secured the mortgage and you are moved in and lived there for 12-months. For purpose of conversation, let us assume the home appreciation is 5%.

This $500,000 home you purchased just 12-months ago is now worth $525,000. Assuming this is your only asset, your net worth is now $525,000.

Now think about this, let us say you did not buy a $500,000 home in Raleigh and let us assume that you purchased a one-hundred thousand dollar home for cash in Raleigh 12-months ago. Using the same 5% appreciation in the previous example, then your net worth would be $105,000. Make sense so far?

OK, what does it mean? With leverage you made $20,000 more!

Let me share a quote from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University on this topic…and I quote:

“Homeownership allows households to amplify any appreciation on the value of their home by a leveraged factor.” End quote.

The Number 2 of 6 financial reason of homeownership is crazy simple and so very obvious but many people miss it.

You are paying for housing whether you own or rent.

Here is a fact, when you rent you are paying for a mortgage, you are just paying your landlord’s mortgage for them.

For the people that were multitasking let me say it again,

when you rent you are paying for a mortgage, you are just paying your landlord’s mortgage for them.

I mentioned earlier that there is nothing wrong with renting and there is a time to rent and that time is not now in my opinion. Census data shows the median monthly rent continues to go up year after year, in fact, since 1988 it has just gone up and up and up. The only way one can escape rising rents is to consider purchasing a home and locking in your monthly housing payment with a fixed rate mortgage payment. I truly believe that homeownership is a much more stable long-term investment.

Perhaps your concern is credit score or that you are self-employed or maybe it is the down payment required.

On the topic of credit score, I think you will be shocked to know that there are home loan solutions that the Martini Mortgage Group offers families that have experienced a bump and a bruise in the past. I get it, bad things happen to good people and the the bad thing that you have moved passed does not need to prevent you from owning a home.

Perhaps a limiting belief is that you are self-employed…many of the families I work with was a Certified Mortgage Advisor are self-employed and they have a very creative accountant. This week, my business partner and fellow mortgage strategist, Logan Martini helped a self-employed person to qualify for a mortgage just using his bank statements for the last 24-months and we did not even look at his tax returns.

Another concern is downpayment, there is a common misconception in the marketplace that one needs to have a 20% down payment to buy a home. One does not need to make a 20% downpayment to secure a home loan. With with the Martini Mortgage Group there are low and no down payment mortgage solutions that we offer.

Remember you are paying for housing whether you rent or own. For me, if I am paying for something, I want to own it. Please do not let myths about credit score or downpayment or the fact that you are self-employed stop you for exploring your options. I said it earlier, homeownership is not right for everyone and it may or may not be right for you however you owe it to yourself and your family to see if it is right for you.

Let me extend an invitation to you, if you would like to have a confidential conversation with me, I am here, just go to CallWithMartini.com to get access to my schedule and book a time for us to connect or if you prefer, call me by dialing 919.238.4934.

The third financial benefit is associated with the fact that owning a home I usually a form of forced savings. Let me breakdown forced savings.

Every month when you write the check for your mortgage you are not only paying interest, you are also paying principal. When you pay principal you are reducing the amount you owe.

Let me illustrate. If you purchased a $500,000 home and you put 20% down and for example let us assume, for illustration only a 4% rate for with a 30-year fixed mortgage, just like the example we talked about earlier when we were discussing that housing is one of the only leveraged investments still available today.

In this example your Principal and interest would be, $1,909.66 a month. Every month when you make a mortgage payment you are retiring your debt every month.

In this example, you are making a forced saving deposit of $576.33 a month. In this example you are making a forced saving deposit of $6,915.96 a year.

There may be substantial tax benefits to owning a home and having a mortgage is the 4th financial reasons to buy a home

A unique financial reason to buying a home is if you itemize your taxes you may be able to deduct the mortgage interest you pay…assuming you are in a twenty eight percent tax bracket and for illustration ONLY, this would mean the month tax benefit for that $500,000 home we have been discussing would be $373.33 a month. The annual tax benefit would be $4,479.96.

When you rent there is no tax benefit nor ability to write off your rent on your Federal or State taxes however do not fret, your landlord most likely will get the benefits and I am sure your landlord is thankful you are participating to their forced savings.

Inflation is the 5th financial reason for homeownership and to buy a home.

Owning a home is typically a hedge against inflation.

Let me define inflation…inflation is a general increase in prices and a fall in purchasing value of money. At the time of this recording inflation is at a 40-year all-time high.

Housing costs and rents have tended over most periods of time to go up higher than the rate of inflation and for this reason owning a home is an attractive proposition because it provides a hedge against inflation.

Finally, the 6th financial reason for homeownership is the non-financial benefits of homeownership. I know it is crazy to say that a non-financial benefit is a a financial benefit but it is and sadly many people overlook the the feeling of gratitude, security, pride and comfort that homeownership offers.

When considering to buy a home you need to to have price and cost clarity of the the dollars and cents but you cannot forget to weigh the non-financial benefit that could truly change your life.

Let me wrap this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast up with a recap the 6 Kevin Martini financial reasons for homeownership.

Number 1 , housing is one of the only leveraged investments still available today.

Number 2, when you rent you are paying for a mortgage, you are just paying your landlord’s mortgage for them.

Number 3, owning a home I usually a form of forced savings.

Number 4, there may be substantial tax benefits to owning a home and having a mortgage.

Number 5, owning a home is typically a hedge against inflation.

Number 6, homeownership provides non-financial benefits.

In closing, getting qualified and ultimately approved for the right home loan and getting mortgage for your home is NOT like shopping for the lowest priced gas for your car.

Listen, every mortgage company secures the money from the same source so everyone at the end of the day has the same mortgage rates however not everyone provides trusted advice with a secure digital mortgage platform that provides certainty like the Martini Mortgage Group provides. In addition, our job is not done after closing since it is our obligation, duty and responsibility to manage your mortgage for you after closing.

Thank you for tuning in to episode 135 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast which was about the 6 Financial Reasons for homeownership.

Thank you in advance for sharing this episode with someone you care about that may benefit from its contact.

If you want trusted advice with a digital mortgage process that offer a great rate with certainty check out my website by going to: www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – you can find some real world information in the learning center and you can also securely apply online or book an appointment with me.

Now it is time for the disclaimer: